Study: forecasts GB out-of-home foodservice visits will grow 1.6 percent in 2016 to 11.38 billion GBP

London / UK. (npd) Global information company The NPD Group is forecasting that the British out-of-home (OOH) foodservice market will grow visits by 1.6 percent in 2016 and a further 1.2 percent in 2017. NPD’s revised 1.6 percent forecast for 2016 is slightly higher than the 1.5 percent it predicted this time last year. This follows the 1.3 percent actual growth in out-of-home foodservice visits in Britain in 2015, the second consecutive year that the sector has recorded a rise in visits.

Total spend

The total spend in the British OOH market was 52.2 billion GBP for the year ending December 2015. Following this strong performance, NPD has revised its 2016 spend forecast up from 53.1 billion GBP to 53.5 billion GBP, and says this will increase further to 54.7 billion GBP in 2017. Its forecast for 2016 OOH visits is 11.4 billion, a 1.6 percent increase over the actual figure for 2015. For 2017, it sees 11.5 billion visits, a further small increase of 1.2 percent.

Channel	2016 Forecast	2016 Forecast	2017 Forecast	2017 Forecast
Casual dining	Visits: 481 million	Spend: 4.9 billion GBP	Visits: 495 million	Spend: 5.1 billion GBP
QS Burger	Visits: 1.05 billion	Spend: 4.4 billion GBP	Visits: 1.09 billion	Spend: 4.6 billion GBP
QS Coffee	Visits: 656 million	Spend: 2.3 billion GBP	Visits: 673 million	Spend: 2.4 billion GBP

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Cyril Lavenant, NPD’s Director of Foodservice for the UK, said: «It’s good to see that there was a bigger improvement in 2015 than anticipated, with the actual performance of 1.3 percent visit growth against our prediction of 1.1 percent. We are now forecasting 1.6 percent visit growth for 2016 due to increasingly confident consumers and a potential further boost from the UEFA EURO Championship and the Rio 2016 Olympic Games. However, while 2017 will also see growth, it is likely that the pace will slow down. We do not see consumers increasing their spending in the foodservice sector any faster than this».

Casual dining

While growth in casual dining is strong, NPD says it will take another year before it breaks through the 5 billion GBP mark. Last year it predicted this would happen by the end of 2016, but with actual spend only reaching 4.7 billion GBP in 2015, NPD now believes this will happen more slowly, growing 5 percent to 4.9 billion GBP in 2016 and a further 4.5 percent in 2017 to reach 5.1 billion GBP. NPD says the slower rate of spend growth is due to casual dining having reached saturation point in the London market. The capital accounts for 20 percent of overall British foodservice industry spend and casual dining is a major channel within that. Recognizing the issue of London’s market saturation, casual dining operators have started to export their concept outside the M25.

QS Burger

NPD forecast last year that the QSR Burger segment would notch up 1.0 billion visits in 2015 and 1.03 billion in 2016. It also predicted 4.1 billion GBP sales in 2015 and 4.3 billion GBP in 2016. The actual 2015 performance was very close to this with visits for 2015 reaching 1.01 billion and sales reaching 4.2 billion GBP. NPD has now revised its 2016 visits forecast upwards to 1.05 billion, or 4 percent above the actual performance in 2015. It is tipping 1.09 billion visits for 2017, which would be a 3.8 percent increase over 2016. For spend, NPD has a revised 2016 forecast of 4.4 billion GBP in 2016, a 4.8 percent jump above the 2015 actual figure, and 4.6 billion GBP for 2017, a further 4.7 percent increase. This positive trend and the upward revision of the forecast are a result of the sector’s continuous investment to increase the overall restaurant experience as well the quality of the food.

QS Coffee

NPD’s forecasts for QSR Coffee reflected the actual figures. It predicted 636 million visits for 2015 and this matched the actual figure for the year exactly. Its forecast on spend was also accurate, with the actual figure coming in at 2.17 billion GBP, slightly above its 2.16 billion GBP forecast. Its revised 2016 visits forecast is 656 million, or 3.1 percent over the 2015 actual figure, and NPD sees a further jump in visits in 2017 to 673 million, which would be 2.7 percent over the 2016 figure. This trend underlines the increasing fondness of British consumers for specialty coffee and their growing willingness to treat themselves throughout the day. NPD has also revised its QSR Coffee spend upwards to 2.3 billion GBP, a 4.5 percent increase over the 2015 actual figure. It also forecasts sales of 2.4 billion GBP in 2017, which would be 4.1 percent above 2016.