Economic Research about Bread in the U.S.: Changes in Retail Organic Price Premiums from 2004 to 2010

Washington / DC. (usdh) Of 17 organic food products U.S. Economic Research Service (ERS) has analyzed, most retail price premiums fluctuated between 2004 and 2010, neither increasing nor decreasing steadily. Only three products – fresh spinach, canned beans, and coffee – showed steady premium decreases. Other products – like salad, milk or eggs – show a organic price premium from 60 to 80 percent in relation to non-organic products. Important to know for bakers not only in the U.S.: The price for organic bread shows a 30-percent-premium in relation to non-organic bread (in 2010).

Organic foods are one of the most rapidly growing sectors of the U.S. retail food market. The ERS Report «Changes in Retail Organic Price Premiums from 2004 to 2010» applies a hedonic model to the Nielsen Homescan data from 2004 to 2010 to estimate the organic price premium for 17 products.

What Is the Issue?

The organic food sector has been one of the fastest growing parts of the food industry since the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) began regulating organic labels on food in 2002. It even grew during the Great Recession (December 2007-June 2009), as organic products became available in more retail outlets. Bringing organic products to retail incurs costs at every level – from farmers and ranchers who must follow the USDA organic regulations (including avoiding synthetic fertilizers, sewage sludge, irradiation, or genetic engineering), to food processors and retailers who must ensure that organic and non-organic products are not co-mingled by their transporters or within their facilities. In order to earn a return on these costs, all participants in the organic food supply chain must receive a higher price (ordinary price plus a premium) for the product. While the wholesale price premium can be determined by comparing the prices of organic and non-organic agricultural products, the products available at the retail level are more diverse, and therefore the price premium cannot be determined by a simple price comparison.

What Did the Study Find?

Retail-level organic price premiums were more than 20 percent of the nonorganic price for all but 1 (spinach) of the 17 products analyzed in this study. Between 2004 and 2010, most premiums fluctuated – i.e., they did not steadily increase or decrease. Only three products demonstrated a steady decrease in their premiums (spinach, canned beans, and coffee), and only the yogurt premium steadily increased throughout the entire study period.

Eggs and dairy had the highest premiums in 2010, ranging from 52 percent of the nonorganic price for yogurt to 82 percent for eggs. Fresh fruits and vegetables, generally recognized as the largest part of the organic market, had the widest spread of premiums (ranging from 7 percent for spinach to 60 percent for salad mix). Processed food premiums ranged from 22 percent for granola to 54 percent for canned beans.

The share of organic product sold (of the total market) increased steadily for all products studied. Sales in 2010 were generally higher for the organic products with lower premiums (e.g., spinach, granola, and carrots); sales were also higher for foods frequently fed to children (such as baby food).

How Was the Study Conducted?

The analysis was based on data from Nielsen’s Homescan data for 2004-10. The participating Homescan households used a barcode scanner to record all food purchases from stores, including grocery stores, supercenters, club stores, drug stores, convenience, and health food stores. The authors used a hedonic price-estimation model to isolate the organic price premium from the other attributes of the various products, such as package size, level of convenience, type of package, or the variety of the product (e.g., salad mix with spring greens versus a cabbage mix). Other factors that affected price were the type of store, month of the year, region of the country, and whether or not the product was sold under a brand name or a private label (store brand).

Bread in the U.S.: Changes in Retail Organic Price Premiums from 2004 to 2010

While bread takes up a significant portion of at least one aisle in a typical grocery store, the market share for organic was less than 2 percent of Homescan participants’ reported 2010 purchase dollars spent on bread. In 2012, bread was about 35 percent of the bread and grain organic category, which experienced an 8-percent growth rate in 2012 to almost 12 percent of organic food (Source: Organic Trade Association, 2013). USDA ERS is not able to identify any dominant nonorganic national brands in the data, and thus did not include the set of binary variables for nonorganic minor brands included in some of the other models. Consumers choose from a wide variety of types of bread – e.g., whole wheat, 100-percent whole wheat, white, bran, oat, fruit, rye, pita, and potato. The organic price premium in 2010 was about 0.52 USD per pound, or 30 percent of the conventional price. Both the premium and the percent of conventional price fluctuated during the study period, and there is no clear trend according to USDA ERS.

	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Organic
Organic	0.3963***	0.3366***	0.2726***	0.2567***	0.2707***	0.3656***	0.4241***
	(0.0286)	(0.0253)	(0.0223)	(0.0135)	(0.0173)	(0.0188)	(0.0173)
Private label	-0.5862***	-0.6242***	-0.6329***	-0.6596***	-0.7008***	-0.6711***	-0.6378***
	(0.0032)	(0.0036)	(0.0036)	(0.0032)	(0.0033)	(0.0048)	(0.0040)
Organic * private label	0.0631	0.9398**	0.4593***	0.4859***	0.4493***	0.4549***	0.2644***
	(0.0742)	(0.3779)	(0.0510)	(0.0422)	(0.0321)	(0.0427)	(0.0621)
Product attributes
100% whole wheat	-0.0887***	0.0540***	0.0704***	0.0635***	0.0633***	0.0425***	0.0294***
	(0.0105)	(0.0037)	(0.0040)	(0.0034)	(0.0037)	(0.0044)	(0.0046)
Whole wheat	0.1355***	0.1095***	0.1231***	0.0952***	0.1271***	0.1670***	0.1873***
	(0.0176)	(0.0083)	(0.0094)	(0.0080)	(0.0074)	(0.0084)	(0.0100)
100% whole wheat * whole wheat	0.0517**	0.0667***	0.0000	0.0712***	0.0497***	0.0350***	0.0509***
	(0.0208)	(0.0120)	(0.0122)	(0.0100)	(0.0107)	(0.0123)	(0.0132)
Bran	-0.0933***	-0.1434***	-0.1229***	-0.0867***	-0.1122***	-0.1102***	-0.1327***
	(0.0061)	(0.0058)	(0.0046)	(0.0040)	(0.0043)	(0.0076)	(0.0062)
Butter	0.1187***	0.1220***	0.1156***	0.1037***	0.1240***	0.0996***	0.1071***
	(0.0063)	(0.0071)	(0.0077)	(0.0061)	(0.0070)	(0.0085)	(0.0086)
Cinnamon raisin	0.3894***	0.3617***	0.3332***	0.3562***	0.3308***	0.3068***	0.2742***
	(0.0094)	(0.0107)	(0.0088)	(0.0078)	(0.0082)	(0.0096)	(0.0120)
Other flavor	0.3900***	0.4208***	0.4412***	0.4388***	0.4915***	0.5420***	0.5686***
	(0.0063)	(0.0060)	(0.0055)	(0.0046)	(0.0050)	(0.0060)	(0.0071)
French or Italian	0.0058	0.0049	0.0037	0.0010	-0.0233***	-0.0291***	-0.0598***
	(0.0080)	(0.0084)	(0.0084)	(0.0069)	(0.0073)	(0.0090)	(0.0107)
Fruit	0.3186***	0.4585***	0.4429***	0.5352***	0.3889***	0.4405***	0.4427***
	(0.0358)	(0.0368)	(0.0210)	(0.0230)	(0.0224)	(0.0233)	(0.0259)
Oat	0.3630***	0.4574***	0.4718***	0.4594***	0.5459***	0.5172***	0.5259***
	(0.0100)	(0.0097)	(0.0099)	(0.0097)	(0.0092)	(0.0134)	(0.0104)
Pita	0.0541***	0.0851***	0.0699***	0.0273*	0.1678***	0.2312***	0.2150***
	(0.0191)	(0.0174)	(0.0203)	(0.0156)	(0.0168)	(0.0196)	(0.0217)
Potato	-0.2174***	-0.1901***	-0.1643***	-0.1743***	-0.1817***	-0.3019***	-0.3465***
	(0.0083)	(0.0102)	(0.0116)	(0.0088)	(0.0101)	(0.0099)	(0.0121)
Pumpernickel	0.4816***	0.5515***	0.6042***	0.6054***	0.7089***	0.8057***	0.8235***
	(0.0162)	(0.0196)	(0.0204)	(0.0165)	(0.0234)	(0.0180)	(0.0243)
Rye	0.4817***	0.5293***	0.5611***	0.5789***	0.6627***	0.7068***	0.7345***
	(0.0067)	(0.0067)	(0.0073)	(0.0059)	(0.0071)	(0.0086)	(0.0093)
Wheat	0.1308***	0.1422***	0.1516***	0.1505***	0.1682***	0.1435***	0.1229***
	(0.0031)	(0.0032)	(0.0035)	(0.0029)	(0.0031)	(0.0034)	(0.0041)
Package size (ounces)	-0.0525***	-0.0515***	-0.0545***	-0.0562***	-0.0610***	-0.0622***	-0.0665***
	(0.0006)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0011)	(0.0011)
Purchased at a discount	-0.2077***	-0.2352***	-0.2579***	-0.2887***	-0.3601***	-0.3598***	-0.3616***
	(0.0025)	(0.0028)	(0.0029)	(0.0027)	(0.0031)	(0.0034)	(0.0034)
Channel type
Club store	0.6933***	0.6840***	0.6662***	0.6577***	0.6633***	0.7332***	0.8606***
	(0.0137)	(0.0126)	(0.0124)	(0.0093)	(0.0100)	(0.0186)	(0.0193)
Convenience store	-0.1304***	-0.0956***	-0.0669***	-0.0533***	-0.0840***	-0.0622***	-0.0719***
	(0.0126)	(0.0141)	(0.0152)	(0.0116)	(0.0144)	(0.0170)	(0.0198)
Drug store	-0.2762***	-0.2486***	-0.1913***	-0.2155***	-0.1619***	-0.1757***	-0.1484***
	(0.0126)	(0.0106)	(0.0125)	(0.0099)	(0.0109)	(0.0104)	(0.0137)
Health food store	–	–	–	–	0.5747***	0.6154***	0.9751***
	–	–	–	–	(0.0788)	(0.0958)	(0.1251)
Mass merchandiser	-0.2293***	-0.2131***	-0.2108***	-0.1645***	-0.2183***	-0.2446***	-0.3064***
	(0.0056)	(0.0057)	(0.0060)	(0.0050)	(0.0058)	(0.0063)	(0.0083)
Other store	-0.3835***	-0.3882***	-0.3814***	-0.3580***	-0.4287***	-0.4030***	-0.3861***
	(0.0067)	(0.0076)	(0.0074)	(0.0061)	(0.0064)	(0.0068)	(0.0072)
Supercenter	-0.1102***	-0.1178***	-0.1064***	-0.0813***	-0.1336***	-0.1600***	-0.2126***
	(0.0030)	(0.0031)	(0.0032)	(0.0024)	(0.0030)	(0.0031)	(0.0032)
Purchase month
February	0.0025	-0.0037	0.0114***	0.0115***	0.0213***	-0.0035	0.0177***
	(0.0023)	(0.0023)	(0.0025)	(0.0021)	(0.0022)	(0.0028)	(0.0029)
March	0.0024	0.0027	0.0083***	0.0195***	0.0322***	-0.0160***	0.0049*
	(0.0023)	(0.0023)	(0.0024)	(0.0021)	(0.0023)	(0.0028)	(0.0028)
April	0.0164***	0.0074***	0.0201***	0.0344***	0.0524***	-0.0165***	0.0137***
	(0.0024)	(0.0024)	(0.0025)	(0.0021)	(0.0024)	(0.0027)	(0.0028)
May	0.0269***	0.0097***	0.0201***	0.0388***	0.0744***	-0.0176***	0.0172***
	(0.0024)	(0.0024)	(0.0025)	(0.0021)	(0.0024)	(0.0029)	(0.0029)
June	0.0307***	0.0142***	0.0248***	0.0373***	0.0941***	-0.0250***	0.0178***
	(0.0025)	(0.0025)	(0.0028)	(0.0021)	(0.0027)	(0.0030)	(0.0030)
July	0.0322***	0.0138***	0.0356***	0.0408***	0.1117***	-0.0306***	0.0177***
	(0.0025)	(0.0025)	(0.0026)	(0.0022)	(0.0026)	(0.0028)	(0.0032)
August	0.0369***	0.0103***	0.0363***	0.0389***	0.0898***	-0.0408***	0.0135***
	(0.0024)	(0.0024)	(0.0026)	(0.0021)	(0.0026)	(0.0029)	(0.0031)
September	0.0362***	0.0103***	0.0455***	0.0437***	0.1018***	-0.0497***	0.0121***
	(0.0027)	(0.0025)	(0.0027)	(0.0022)	(0.0026)	(0.0031)	(0.0031)
October	0.0412***	0.0226***	0.0593***	0.0623***	0.1184***	-0.0591***	0.0158***
	(0.0025)	(0.0025)	(0.0027)	(0.0022)	(0.0026)	(0.0029)	(0.0031)
November	0.0451***	0.0354***	0.0705***	0.0828***	0.1183***	-0.0742***	0.0373***
	(0.0026)	(0.0029)	(0.0027)	(0.0023)	(0.0027)	(0.0030)	(0.0036)
December	0.0446***	0.0369***	0.0809***	0.0964***	0.1090***	-0.0579***	0.0468***
	(0.0027)	(0.0029)	(0.0028)	(0.0025)	(0.0028)	(0.0035)	(0.0036)
Market
Albany	-0.1444***	-0.1151***	-0.0896**	-0.1566***	-0.1147***	-0.1143***	-0.0452
	(0.0271)	(0.0320)	(0.0349)	(0.0314)	(0.0239)	(0.0276)	(0.0285)
Atlanta	-0.1265***	-0.1763***	-0.1685***	-0.2541***	-0.3378***	-0.3301***	-0.2861***
	(0.0136)	(0.0135)	(0.0153)	(0.0278)	(0.0165)	(0.0234)	(0.0186)
Baltimore	-0.2001***	-0.1470***	-0.1037***	-0.1903***	-0.2136***	-0.2269***	-0.2117***
	(0.0193)	(0.0207)	(0.0229)	(0.0309)	(0.0220)	(0.0272)	(0.0239)
Birmingham	-0.2085***	-0.2320***	-0.2209***	-0.2980***	-0.3472***	-0.3560***	-0.3093***
	(0.0138)	(0.0145)	(0.0155)	(0.0279)	(0.0169)	(0.0237)	(0.0196)
Buffalo-Rochester	-0.1720***	-0.1532***	-0.1575***	-0.2276***	-0.2346***	-0.2702***	-0.2414***
	(0.0141)	(0.0153)	(0.0167)	(0.0283)	(0.0174)	(0.0237)	(0.0196)
Charlotte	-0.2019***	-0.1855***	-0.1690***	-0.2494***	-0.3109***	-0.3082***	-0.2150***
	(0.0137)	(0.0142)	(0.0166)	(0.0281)	(0.0170)	(0.0260)	(0.0242)
Chicago	-0.0534***	-0.1113***	-0.0959***	-0.2040***	-0.2571***	-0.2956***	-0.2955***
	(0.0161)	(0.0160)	(0.0170)	(0.0284)	(0.0170)	(0.0229)	(0.0186)
Cincinnati	-0.3161***	-0.2833***	-0.3040***	-0.4172***	-0.4856***	-0.5010***	-0.4661***
	(0.0196)	(0.0209)	(0.0211)	(0.0286)	(0.0176)	(0.0236)	(0.0203)
Cleveland	-0.2727***	-0.3148***	-0.3341***	-0.4540***	-0.5013***	-0.4878***	-0.4504***
	(0.0193)	(0.0202)	(0.0225)	(0.0288)	(0.0176)	(0.0243)	(0.0199)
Columbus	-0.3274***	-0.3167***	-0.3170***	-0.4017***	-0.4364***	-0.4222***	-0.3985***
	(0.0137)	(0.0143)	(0.0158)	(0.0281)	(0.0165)	(0.0236)	(0.0194)
Dallas	-0.2435***	-0.2432***	-0.1828***	-0.2578***	-0.3149***	-0.2916***	-0.2846***
	(0.0134)	(0.0140)	(0.0158)	(0.0275)	(0.0161)	(0.0228)	(0.0187)
Denver	-0.0147	-0.0270*	0.0014	-0.0688**	-0.1105***	-0.1562***	-0.1441***
	(0.0147)	(0.0150)	(0.0163)	(0.0281)	(0.0170)	(0.0237)	(0.0206)
Des Moines	-0.2544***	-0.2371***	-0.2238***	-0.3041***	-0.3641***	-0.3507***	-0.3287***
	(0.0297)	(0.0297)	(0.0345)	(0.0314)	(0.0238)	(0.0305)	(0.0271)
Detroit	-0.1906***	-0.2006***	-0.2154***	-0.3117***	-0.3836***	-0.3859***	-0.4000***
	(0.0143)	(0.0152)	(0.0156)	(0.0278)	(0.0162)	(0.0231)	(0.0183)
Exurban NY	-0.0609**	-0.0623**	0.0166	-0.0733**	-0.0399	-0.0553*	-0.0154
	(0.0257)	(0.0266)	(0.0272)	(0.0335)	(0.0275)	(0.0319)	(0.0283)
Grand Rapids	-0.3025***	-0.2916***	-0.3009***	-0.4192***	-0.4808***	-0.4672***	-0.4287***
	(0.0230)	(0.0219)	(0.0232)	(0.0286)	(0.0178)	(0.0252)	(0.0213)
Hartford-New Haven	-0.0293	-0.0149	-0.0079	-0.0484	0.0042	-0.0058	-0.0194
	(0.0245)	(0.0270)	(0.0297)	(0.0317)	(0.0250)	(0.0300)	(0.0263)
Houston	-0.3017***	-0.2985***	-0.2337***	-0.3110***	-0.3671***	-0.3429***	-0.3409***
	(0.0151)	(0.0140)	(0.0153)	(0.0275)	(0.0164)	(0.0226)	(0.0189)
Indianapolis	-0.2680***	-0.2577***	-0.3312***	-0.4226***	-0.4979***	-0.4984***	-0.4637***
	(0.0232)	(0.0234)	(0.0246)	(0.0283)	(0.0174)	(0.0238)	(0.0206)
Jacksonville	-0.2616***	-0.2609***	-0.1712***	-0.2435***	-0.3110***	-0.3329***	-0.2736***
	(0.0281)	(0.0266)	(0.0269)	(0.0301)	(0.0203)	(0.0273)	(0.0242)
Kansas City	-0.1847***	-0.1657***	-0.1883***	-0.2403***	-0.2947***	-0.3213***	-0.3051***
	(0.0261)	(0.0249)	(0.0260)	(0.0293)	(0.0195)	(0.0263)	(0.0229)
Little Rock	-0.2870***	-0.2817***	-0.2665***	-0.3298***	-0.3673***	-0.3819***	-0.3860***
	(0.0172)	(0.0171)	(0.0181)	(0.0285)	(0.0175)	(0.0239)	(0.0204)
Los Angeles	0.1617***	0.1395***	0.1482***	0.0674**	0.0522***	0.0108	0.0631***
	(0.0158)	(0.0162)	(0.0179)	(0.0282)	(0.0181)	(0.0230)	(0.0214)
Louisville	-0.2584***	-0.2800***	-0.2944***	-0.4008***	-0.4897***	-0.4823***	-0.4463***
	(0.0160)	(0.0151)	(0.0166)	(0.0289)	(0.0179)	(0.0247)	(0.0211)
Memphis	-0.2790***	-0.2925***	-0.2943***	-0.3638***	-0.4428***	-0.4419***	-0.4201***
	(0.0187)	(0.0180)	(0.0182)	(0.0295)	(0.0186)	(0.0257)	(0.0231)
Miami	-0.1706***	-0.1344***	-0.0819***	-0.1862***	-0.2310***	-0.2465***	-0.1675***
	(0.0137)	(0.0151)	(0.0168)	(0.0282)	(0.0171)	(0.0241)	(0.0206)
Milwaukee	-0.1459***	-0.1193***	-0.1402***	-0.2593***	-0.3416***	-0.3346***	-0.2835***
	(0.0266)	(0.0272)	(0.0293)	(0.0299)	(0.0202)	(0.0269)	(0.0244)
Minneapolis	-0.0115	-0.0200	-0.0326**	-0.1220***	-0.1304***	-0.1310***	-0.1221***
	(0.0147)	(0.0152)	(0.0163)	(0.0283)	(0.0178)	(0.0242)	(0.0216)
Nashville	-0.2781***	-0.2599***	-0.2764***	-0.3985***	-0.4617***	-0.4568***	-0.4094***
	(0.0151)	(0.0157)	(0.0169)	(0.0285)	(0.0175)	(0.0249)	(0.0205)
New Orleans-Mobile	-0.1462***	-0.1573***	-0.1045***	-0.1913***	-0.2209***	-0.2064***	-0.1708***
	(0.0168)	(0.0203)	(0.0201)	(0.0290)	(0.0177)	(0.0241)	(0.0213)
Oklahoma City-Tulsa	-0.3070***	-0.3027***	-0.2841***	-0.3589***	-0.3957***	-0.3721***	-0.3970***
	(0.0156)	(0.0159)	(0.0181)	(0.0285)	(0.0174)	(0.0245)	(0.0215)
Omaha	-0.2370***	-0.2480***	-0.2254***	-0.3162***	-0.3903***	-0.4294***	-0.3863***
	(0.0267)	(0.0267)	(0.0308)	(0.0309)	(0.0220)	(0.0283)	(0.0251)
Orlando	-0.2817***	-0.2184***	-0.1814***	-0.2670***	-0.3166***	-0.3447***	-0.2661***
	(0.0210)	(0.0213)	(0.0240)	(0.0289)	(0.0188)	(0.0244)	(0.0210)
Philadelphia	-0.2033***	-0.1635***	-0.1434***	-0.2385***	-0.2348***	-0.2450***	-0.1720***
	(0.0141)	(0.0150)	(0.0162)	(0.0279)	(0.0169)	(0.0231)	(0.0191)
Phoenix	-0.0252*	-0.0588***	-0.0071	-0.0716**	-0.1288***	-0.2076***	-0.1746***
	(0.0141)	(0.0164)	(0.0168)	(0.0281)	(0.0172)	(0.0236)	(0.0197)
Pittsburgh	-0.3551***	-0.3422***	-0.3384***	-0.4128***	-0.4704***	-0.4861***	-0.4484***
	(0.0185)	(0.0199)	(0.0235)	(0.0288)	(0.0188)	(0.0245)	(0.0212)
Portland, OR	-0.1852***	-0.2117***	-0.1520***	-0.2841***	-0.3226***	-0.2871***	-0.2410***
	(0.0257)	(0.0262)	(0.0315)	(0.0322)	(0.0229)	(0.0264)	(0.0251)
Raleigh-Durham	-0.2227***	-0.2165***	-0.1700***	-0.2485***	-0.3066***	-0.3237***	-0.2506***
	(0.0193)	(0.0225)	(0.0263)	(0.0298)	(0.0188)	(0.0242)	(0.0218)
Richmond	-0.2298***	-0.1825***	-0.1574***	-0.2286***	-0.2654***	-0.2834***	-0.2274***
	(0.0209)	(0.0239)	(0.0250)	(0.0291)	(0.0189)	(0.0260)	(0.0239)
Sacramento	0.2112***	0.1933***	0.2363***	0.1243***	0.0994***	0.0177	0.0321
	(0.0174)	(0.0186)	(0.0197)	(0.0304)	(0.0215)	(0.0262)	(0.0238)
Salt Lake City	-0.2475***	-0.2766***	-0.2401***	-0.3000***	-0.3081***	-0.3224***	-0.2794***
	(0.0229)	(0.0239)	(0.0256)	(0.0303)	(0.0214)	(0.0262)	(0.0227)
San Antonio	-0.3457***	-0.3256***	-0.3019***	-0.3513***	-0.4278***	-0.3913***	-0.3966***
	(0.0133)	(0.0136)	(0.0150)	(0.0279)	(0.0169)	(0.0231)	(0.0198)
San Diego	0.1715***	0.1541***	0.1927***	0.1355***	0.0802***	-0.0203	0.0262
	(0.0284)	(0.0302)	(0.0367)	(0.0316)	(0.0227)	(0.0287)	(0.0299)
San Francisco	0.4646***	0.3652***	0.4112***	0.3039***	0.3014***	0.2212***	0.2121***
	(0.0172)	(0.0190)	(0.0204)	(0.0304)	(0.0233)	(0.0312)	(0.0237)
Seattle	-0.0033	-0.0373**	0.0061	-0.0519*	-0.0991***	-0.0875***	-0.0846***
	(0.0156)	(0.0168)	(0.0177)	(0.0291)	(0.0193)	(0.0253)	(0.0223)
St. Louis	-0.2179***	-0.2153***	-0.2021***	-0.3004***	-0.3386***	-0.3673***	-0.3141***
	(0.0149)	(0.0148)	(0.0160)	(0.0283)	(0.0168)	(0.0233)	(0.0196)
Suburban NY	-0.0843***	-0.0574***	-0.0231	-0.0677**	-0.0321*	-0.0572**	0.0025
	(0.0192)	(0.0189)	(0.0195)	(0.0293)	(0.0191)	(0.0259)	(0.0210)
Syracuse	-0.2200***	-0.1874***	-0.1629***	-0.2888***	-0.2612***	-0.2462***	-0.1867***
	(0.0267)	(0.0304)	(0.0295)	(0.0306)	(0.0218)	(0.0266)	(0.0255)
Tampa	-0.2400***	-0.2511***	-0.2038***	-0.2630***	-0.3202***	-0.3323***	-0.2554***
	(0.0142)	(0.0145)	(0.0165)	(0.0277)	(0.0162)	(0.0231)	(0.0189)
Urban NY	-0.1047***	-0.0352*	0.0126	-0.0690**	-0.0241	-0.0511*	0.0303
	(0.0189)	(0.0199)	(0.0225)	(0.0310)	(0.0229)	(0.0292)	(0.0273)
Washington, DC	-0.1795***	-0.1022***	-0.1119***	-0.1518***	-0.1704***	-0.1443***	-0.0928***
	(0.0161)	(0.0185)	(0.0180)	(0.0289)	(0.0185)	(0.0256)	(0.0212)
Nonmetro division 1: New England	-0.1276***	-0.0586**	-0.0141	-0.0685**	-0.0315	0.0035	0.0177
	(0.0277)	(0.0265)	(0.0313)	(0.0328)	(0.0277)	(0.0349)	(0.0265)
Nonmetro division 2: Middle Atlantic	-0.2683***	-0.2536***	-0.2467***	-0.3467***	-0.3703***	-0.2797***	-0.2778***
	(0.0245)	(0.0241)	(0.0256)	(0.0299)	(0.0220)	(0.0804)	(0.0237)
Nonmetro division 3: East North Central	-0.2581***	-0.2571***	-0.2697***	-0.3668***	-0.4367***	-0.4471***	-0.4130***
	(0.0139)	(0.0143)	(0.0157)	(0.0272)	(0.0149)	(0.0218)	(0.0171)
Nonmetro division 4: West North Central	-0.2179***	-0.2032***	-0.1777***	-0.2735***	-0.3189***	-0.3335***	-0.2926***
	(0.0148)	(0.0180)	(0.0191)	(0.0274)	(0.0155)	(0.0225)	(0.0177)
Nonmetro division 5: South Atlantic	-0.2336***	-0.2366***	-0.2099***	-0.2930***	-0.3519***	-0.3399***	-0.2868***
	(0.0143)	(0.0149)	(0.0160)	(0.0270)	(0.0150)	(0.0217)	(0.0171)
Nonmetro division 6: East South Central	-0.2174***	-0.2357***	-0.2291***	-0.3233***	-0.3689***	-0.3830***	-0.3390***
	(0.0134)	(0.0140)	(0.0154)	(0.0275)	(0.0160)	(0.0228)	(0.0182)
Nonmetro division 7: West South Central	-0.3188***	-0.3071***	-0.2695***	-0.3367***	-0.3835***	-0.3698***	-0.3313***
	(0.0124)	(0.0126)	(0.0142)	(0.0269)	(0.0152)	(0.0216)	(0.0234)
Nonmetro division 8: Mountain	-0.1159***	-0.1179***	-0.0839***	-0.1636***	-0.2031***	-0.2156***	-0.2193***
	(0.0179)	(0.0187)	(0.0202)	(0.0285)	(0.0180)	(0.0233)	(0.0196)
Nonmetro division 9: Pacific	0.0080	-0.0031	0.0253	-0.0814***	-0.1298***	-0.1693***	-0.1268***
	(0.0224)	(0.0240)	(0.0262)	(0.0299)	(0.0213)	(0.0256)	(0.0228)
Constant	2.6971***	2.7358***	2.8190***	3.0149***	3.2948***	3.4358***	3.4144***
	(0.0167)	(0.0163)	(0.0177)	(0.0297)	(0.0182)	(0.0355)	(0.0277)
Number of transactions	974’828	959’722	887’205	1’449’813	1’371’319	1’332’113	1’280’911
Number of households	38581.0000	37882.0000	36748.0000	61538.0000	59673.0000	58618.0000	58632.0000
Average number of purchases per household	25.2670	25.3345	24.1429	23.5596	22.9806	22.7253	21.8466
Maximum number of purchases per household	296	287	231	282	228	260	296
Minimum number of purchases per household	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Variance of household effects	0.2990	0.3125	0.3123	0.3600	0.3560	0.5405	0.4659
Variance of random error	0.4405	0.4684	0.4604	0.4959	0.5551	0.6216	0.6612
Fraction of variance due to household effect	0.3155	0.3080	0.3151	0.3451	0.2914	0.4306	0.3318
Within household r-squared	0.4045	0.3941	0.4255	0.4012	0.3888	0.3496	0.3301
Between household r-squared	0.6240	0.6147	0.6332	0.5837	0.6263	0.4538	0.5060
Overall r-squared	0.5172	0.5064	0.5300	0.5050	0.5050	0.4503	0.4291
Note: No binary variables for brand included
–  Indicates binary variable was omitted because it was perfectly correlated with another variable in that year, or all observations were equal to 0.
* 90% significance
** 95% significance
*** 99% significance
Source: Calculated by USDA, Economic Research Service using Nielsen Homescan data 2004-2010.